NC could be deciding factor in race for the White House
In presidential elections, a swing state or battleground state in presidential elections is any state that can be won by either party. As evident by the number of campaign visits candidates have made to North Carolina, it’s clear that it could be a deciding factor in the 2024 race for the White House.
Although North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since Barack Obama in 2008, and has voted almost solely Republican, polls are showing that the race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is a toss-up and both campaigns have taken notice.
Before he dropped out of the race, President Joe Biden made it a point to make several stops in the Tar Heel state and since taking the nomination for the Democratic Party, Harris has continued that trend. Trump has made stops in Charlotte, Fayetteville, Asheboro, and Greensboro.
A poll published by The Washington Post last week shows Trump with 50% support from likely voters, compared to 48% for Harris. With the countdown to Election Day at less than 30 days, more recent polls conducted by High Point University, New York Times and CNN show Trump and Harris tied.
To keep the state red the Trump Campaign will be relying on history and the history of voters in rural areas. To paint the state blue Harris will have to rely heavily on the Black vote, similar to what President Obama did in 2008. Numbers from 2016 and 2020 show that the Republican stronghold over the state is weakening. In 2016 Trump won in N.C. by three percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point. In 2020 N.C. was also the only state in which Trump won with under 50% of the total vote.
The Washington Post reports that six in 10 white likely voters in N.C. support Trump and eight in 10 Black likely voters support Harris. When looking at voters by location, 54% of voters in the eastern part of the state support Trump by 54%. Harris has support from 55% of voters in the Charlotte area and 59% of voters in the Raleigh-Durham area.
Forsyth County is expected to follow suit with the other metropolitan areas across the state. Past election trends tell us that Forsyth County is traditionally blue. In 2020 Biden finished with 56% of the total vote compared to only 42% for Trump. In 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton finished with nearly 53% of the total vote, while Trump finished with less than 43%.
When looking at the current race for governor between (D) Josh Stein and (R) Mark Robinson, most polls have Robinson behind by more than 20 percentage points. But it’s important to note that in N.C. the race for governor doesn’t always tell who will win the presidency in N.C. For example, in 2020, although Governor Roy Cooper, who is a Democrat, defeated Dan Forest, who is a Republican, Trump still carried the state.
While the experts try to predict who will win, polls cannot predict the future. The only way to ensure your voice is heard and that the candidate of your choice has a chance is to get out and vote. Early voting in North Carolina begins on Thursday, Oct. 17, and ends on Saturday, Nov. 2. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5.
For more information, including sample ballots, a list of early voting sites and more, visit https://www.forsyth.cc/Elections/ .
