WS Chronicle

The North Carolina men’s basketball team is not having the season it envisioned at the start of the year. As of this writing, the Tar Heels are 16-11 overall and 9-6 in conference play, sitting on the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid next month. After opening the season ranked No. 9 in the country, the team has struggled and will need a run similar to NC State’s last year to secure a spot in the tournament. 

Before the season began, I felt great about this Tar Heels team. They had a returning star in R.J. Davis, a solid supporting cast with players like Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers, along with two highly touted freshmen in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. I believed this combination of veteran leadership and fresh talent would lead to another deep tournament run – but I was wrong. 

Many have pointed to the lack of size in the post as the team’s Achilles’ heel. I didn’t think it would be a major issue, expecting the stellar play of a three-guard lineup to compensate. Unfortunately, that has not been the case. The combination of Davis, Cadeau and Trimble has not flourished as anticipated, and the lack of a post presence has plagued the Tar Heels all season. 

I’m not saying head coach Hubert Davis is a bad coach, but I do feel he hasn’t made the necessary adjustments to maximize the team’s success. I know Davis has forgotten more basketball than I will ever know, and he sees these players daily, but some of his lineup decisions have been puzzling. 

Most coaches trim their rotations as the season progresses, but sometimes you have to go with the players who are producing. With Davis’s unusual rotations, it’s unclear who the go-to player is for the Tar Heels on a nightly basis – a recipe for inconsistency. 

Warning signs of a tough season were apparent early on. The team struggled against Elon and Dayton, then suffered losses to Auburn, Kansas, Michigan State and Alabama. That pattern has continued, with UNC securing just one Quad 1 win – against UCLA on a neutral court – while accumulating 10 Quad 1 losses. 

This team simply hasn’t found the formula to beat top-tier opponents and has struggled in close games. Those 10 losses could hurt the Tar Heels on Selection Sunday, potentially leaving them on the outside looking in – a major disappointment for the program. 

I don’t believe Davis is on the hot seat just yet, but I’ve heard rumblings. In three of his four seasons as head coach, the Tar Heels have been on the tournament bubble, marked by inconsistency and a lack of sustained success that the fan base has come to expect. 

On the other hand, Davis led UNC to the national championship game in his first season, won the ACC regular-season title in 2023-24 and has recruited well. 

ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt summed up the state of Carolina basketball best on “The Field of 68” podcast. 

“You can’t be a team that only makes a run every couple of years,” Van Pelt said. “You’re North Carolina! I’m just amazed. 

“I just can’t wrap my head around the idea that it’s okay for Carolina to just be OK, or maybe make a run every couple of years. They have too many built-in advantages,” he continued. 

Van Pelt is exactly right. The Tar Heels’ mystique has faded somewhat since Roy Williams retired. Opponents used to fear coming into the Dean Dome, but that no longer seems to be the case. 

Looking ahead, Davis has work to do. Davis and Withers are seniors and will not return next season. Jackson is a one-and-done player, and Powell may test the NBA Draft waters this spring. Cadeau and Trimble could also leave for the NBA, creating significant holes in the lineup. 

UNC does have three promising players set to join next season. Power forward Caleb Wilson from Atlanta could provide the inside presence the team desperately needs, but he’ll need help. Combo guards Isaiah Denis and Derek Dixon should add scoring on the wing. Davis will also need to be active in the transfer portal to avoid another season like this one. 

Davis must put an end to the up-and-down seasons of his tenure. If he doesn’t, the hot seat talk will only grow louder. Hopefully, he can right the ship and bring back that Chapel Hill prestige.